Revista Latinoamericana de Difusión Científica
Volumen 2 – Número 3 - ISSN 2711-0494
Ángel Huacal Vásquez// Modelación por mínimos cuadrados…19-27
Least squares modeling of mortality in Peru (1960-2020), caused by
respiratory diseases and by Coronavirus Disease 2019
ABSTRACT
In the present investigatión the objective is demostrate the validity of the least square
method for the problem of general mortality in Perú since 1960-2020. Annual mortality data
was used(macro since 1960-2017, Ministry of Health(MINSA) since 1999-2011, National
Institute of Statistics and Informatics(INEI) since 2000-2015), mortality data for respiratory
diseases of the MINSA in the period 2005-2014, daily data on number of people sampled,
infected and dead for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) of the newspapers El Comercio
and La República for the period March 6 to May 15,2020; MINSA population data since
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990-2011.The method of least squares was applied and its linear projections to 2020, linear
programming criteria for maximization, and the 2018 epidemiological study base in Peru to
reference the peak of the pandemia. The linear projection indicate a maximization of 189415
deaths corresponds to July 2018, a 2020 population of 33474504 people, a máximum
mortality rate of 0.60%,and a percentage of 14.2% of mortality in 2020 due to respiratory
diseases reaching 28630 deaths. The results of the COVID-19 analysis show a quadratic
behavior, the annual projection on a simple of 1.8% of the population, indicates that the
mortality percentage is 12.2%, and the mortality rate is 0.07%. It is concluded that mortality
is oscillatory and grows linearly or at most has a quadratic behavior and the annual mortality
from COVID-19 in Peru is within mortality from respiratory diseases by 2020.
KEYWORDS: Peru, linear projection, least squares, COVID-19, mortality, respiratory
diseases.
Introducción
El interés por conocer los indicadores de mortalidad en el mundo inició en Londres
en 1536 (INEI 2017); los estudios epidemiológicos en el Perú, Nakamoto, I. et al. (2003),
afirma que el 12 de marzo del 2003 hubo una Alerta Global por una enfermedad respiratoria
desconocida que producía la muerte por neumonía a la que posteriormente se le denominó
Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Grave (SARS), además indica que el Coronavirus es un grupo
de virus que es causa común de enfermedades respiratorias en humanos. La Resolución
N° 139-2020-MINSA informa respecto al Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) es una
enfermedad y define los casos en función de infecciones respiratorias agudas (IRA), es
causado por el virus SARS-COV-2 (coronavirus 2) y tiene comorbilidades (otras
enfermedades asociadas); Fernanda, P. (25 de febrero 2020) afirma que el Centro Chino
para el Control y Prevención de Enfermedades indica una tasa de mortalidad general por
COVID-19 de 2.3%; el diario La República (6 de mayo 2020) respecto a COVID-19 señala:
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